America by the numbers: As the next elections loom

Monday, 04 April 2011 08:40

Written by Marvin Bionat

The U.S. economy shifted into higher gear in March with 216,000 new jobs. That brought down the unemployment rate to 8.8 percent, from a high of 10.1 percent in late 2009.

Asians had the lowest unemployment rate at 7.1 percent, followed by whites at 7.9 percent. Worst hit were blacks, with 15.5 percent unemployed, followed by 11.3 percent of Hispanics.

The average hourly rate for all nonfarm employees remained steady at $22.87.

While very positive, the March employment gains are not exactly blistering. Even if the economy gains 200,000 jobs every month, Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, thinks that it will take about 8 years for the employment rate to return to the pre-recession low of 5 percent.

Despite the cautionary note, it was a good weekend for President Obama to informally launch his 2012 re-election bid. Speaking at a UPS shipping facility, he pointed to the U.S. economy’s “signs of real strength.” In addition to the employment figures, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index hit 61 in February, the highest in seven years. Readings greater than 50 signal growth.

While Democratic legislators predictably got clobbered in last year’s mid-term elections, a slow but sure recovery will make the report of Obama’s political death a bit exaggerated. The inherent advantage of incumbency is also expected to break the already eye-popping fund-raising record the president has established, further upping his chances. In the 2008 presidential campaign, Obama raised $745 million, compared to McCain’s $368 million. (Of the total money the Obama campaign collected, $500 million was raised online.) His war chest for 2012 could exceed $1 billion.

As it is, polls show better job ratings for the president. Even Fox’s poll results indicate a favorable trend. In March, the president’s approval rating was 49 percent, with 44 percent disapproving. In early April last year, the disapproval rating was higher at 48 percent, with 43 percent approving.

Last month, when the Pew Research Center asked registered voters nationwide, “Looking ahead, would you like to see Barack Obama reelected president in 2012 or would you prefer that a Republican candidate win the election?” 47 percent chose Obama, with only 37 percent favoring a Republican candidate.

It is important to note that the Pew survey had a high “unsure” rate of 16 percent. Clearly, those inclined to vote Republican are still waiting for interested candidates to step forward, probably hoping for a more compelling and charismatic contender to emerge. Most of those who have indicated presidential ambitions are not doing too well in the polls. Mano a mano, last week’s Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind Poll showed Obama handily beating Sarah Palin (54 to 34), Chris Christie (46 to 40), Newt Gingrich (52 to 37), and Tim Pawlenty (48 to 34).

If elections were held today, the two Republicans that will give Obama a run for his money are Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. They both tied (statistically) Obama in the same Fairleigh Dickinson University survey. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Romney is hopelessly unexciting, which will be spotlighted if he goes head to head with Obama. Huckabee, on the other hand, showed a soft heart for illegal immigrants while he was governor of Arkansas. Many Republicans are repulsed by that. He also got an F on spending and taxes from the Cato Institute, a think tank with ties to the GOP. But Huckabee is quite a communicator. This former Arkansas governor is glib in a Bill Clinton sort of way and could potentially cast himself as the most viable Republican candidate in the next party primary, unless someone fresh and exciting joins the fray.

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