The "No-Proc" Scenarios

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Interestingly, even while the campaign season is just on its 9th day, there are already several scenarios being discussed on various coffee shops and political gatherings about a two-stage controlled pass. I will not belabor that scenario. Rather, let me relate to you the three “no-proc” (no proclamation) scenarios. First scenario is that candidate A will not be allowed to be proclaimed under any situation since if A is proclaimed, it would be very hard to be head of a chamber and hence, pursue a constitutional change to shift to a parliamentary form of government.

The second scenario pertains to candidate B whose winning chances are almost at par with A but A is already preparing for a scenario of “too much cheating ensuring B wins.” Hence, there will be another EDSA.

The third scenario is for candidate C to win but the powers that be will not allow a round 2 for C in Malacañang.  But C will also have to calibrate his position now since if his base vote goes any lower to a single digit, then 2016 comes to framing that decision.  C’s son is running for re-election and his standing is crucial to position himself for 2016.  If C slides, his son is a viable candidate: he has the C’s 15% base vote and the support of the key players for 2016.  Winning 2016 is a different ball game altogether.

What am I trying to point out?  If you are a patriot and you want a stable and peaceful transition from President Arroyo to the winner, voters will have to look beyond the numbers of A, B, and C because getting stuck with them would mean a very unstable transition.

A lot of pundits are saying Gibo and Gordon cannot make it.  Gibo and Gordon are the tail-enders, but a sizable segment of the voter pool is saying Gordon is “The Alternative,” if only his numbers can rise up to the challenge.  In terms of communication, the Gordon Team will have to find the answer to the statement that he is the alternative candidate but he will not win, so in effect, the voters are just throwing their votes.

Will there be no proclamation in either of the two scenarios?  At the rate they occupy the cellar, no one in their respective team will be doing some mental calisthenics on scenarios such as this because most of their efforts will be directed to overhauling a huge lead.

The resurgence of the tail-enders will have to happen by the end of February and should be carried out up to March 15.  If the tail-enders accomplish that, the terrain will change and the only source of preference realignment is from the leading contenders.  If the race becomes competitive by March 15, then all these celebrity-endorsers and ads frontloading, as well as portion buys in game shows, will be thing of the past and three criteria will become vital, as should be: issues, candidate’s character, and ability to lead.

No-proc scenarios should not be entertained in any stage of the 90-day campaign for if these are drawn, it will again bring us back to ground zero, losing our competitive edge as a nation and bringing us to the level of some African states similarly situated like us in terms corruption.  We just cannot afford a no-proc!

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