Don’t do ads now

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I once met an ad guy who laughed at political campaigners who do everything by the numbers. He said that it is not the way to win an election. It was like a red flag to me because here was an ad guy saying there is another way of winning, when all along winning political campaigns is all about having 50.1 percent of the votes. Again, I repeat, elections are all about having the numbers to win and the ads are mere tools to increase awareness. They do not win elections.

Candidates are therefore warned this early to do your homework, instead of putting together ads or endorsing products.  Among the senators who endorsed a product or appeared in an ad advocating an issue, no one earned a percentage increase from the tracking done by the Social Weather Stations or PulseAsia.  To a certain extent, the ads were the talk of the town, but that’s about it.  In my book, the only effective endorsement ad done by a senator is that of Sen. Ping Lacson’s because it achieved its objective: soften his image. Before when the brand “Lacson” is mentioned, you think of police, peace and order, a stern looking guy in uniform.  Generally, a strong message.  His endorsement of a Filipino product associated to skin care elicited giggles from the fairer gender – not his typical base (that’s what I call an A-HA moment). A smiling Ping is new and as a member of the LGBT community told me, “Ang gwapo niya kapag nakangiti, hindi nakakatakot [He is handsome when he smiles and he does not look stern].” And that ad didn’t appear on TV but in print and billboards, and it elicited the buzz with even class A-B matrons talking about it in beauty parlors and spas.

That is why I caution candidates from embracing ad people as if they can create an immediate advantage. All the endorsers didn’t get a tick or a hiccup in their ratings and all what they stood for now will be immaterial when it really matters – the last 30 days of a campaign period.  So save your money and do your homework first.

What homework?  It’s learning from the voters.  Who are you in the voter’s mind is a function of branding survey.  Do you know the voters’ core values that drive their views about politics?  Do you know the psychographics of your voter base?  If you do, how would you communicate with them?  Why do I say these things?  It’s because different voters have different core values. It is therefore by segmentation that a candidate is able to understand those differences and targeting these differences via communication enables effective engagement.  Doing one’s homework ensures each peso spent on the campaign returns the maximum value in votes on Election Day. And yes, ad guys, elections are all about numbers.

Ever heard the term “measured capacity”?  Each name floated or dropped in the presidential, vice-presidential, and senatorial derbies should ask their resident pollster or their main man (if your main go-to-guy is an ad person, good luck!) what their measured capacity is, and that is often done via time series – a statistical analysis. Across time a politician has a stable base of support and whatever happens, that base holds. Take the case of former President Erap who stands on the average around 28 to 30 percent. That is why if he runs in 2010, that measured capacity is a daunting lead, higher than incumbent Vice President Noli de Castro at 20-23 percent.  The measured capacity of President Erap, if he does not run, can be translated to an endorsement factor and that makes the former president the most appealing shadow for the opposition’s presidential candidate in 2010.

I won’t bother discussing the rest but ask your people to do it and plan from there.  Measured capacity becomes important in choosing the vice presidential candidate and your senatorial slate.  Another term I would like to introduce to my readers is the concept of relative strength, and that is measured by quantitative and qualitative studies.  Then if you are able to answer who you are and what you have to offer, then it would be appropriate to even discuss the optimal mix for media buys.  Absent those things, you are just throwing money to a worthless activity, which cannot be quantified.  Now that makes campaigning more and more expensive.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions advanced in this article is the author’s own, and may not necessarily represent the views and opinions of THE LOBBYiST, its editors, or its publishers.

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