Between the Dragon and Uncle Sam

Tuesday, 14 September 2010 00:00

Written by Malou Tiquia

The past two months made the Philippines center stage of geopolitics. On one hand, neighboring China is the country’s biggest market. On the other, US has strong traditional and historical ties with us albeit with a floundering economy.

Last August 23, an unfortunate incident broke into crisis proportion with Hong Kong, China’s first special administrative region, pressuring the Aquino government to get to the bottom of it. This infamous crisis has blown out of proportion warranting a global interest.

As Hong Kong Tourism Board issued a black alert --the most severe of a three-stage alert systems, suspension of package tours and issuance of travel advisories against going to areas where one’s safety may be at risk bombarded the country’s airwaves. It seems this black alert is here to stay indefinitely. As we were reeling the aftermath of the hostage crisis, quietly and without much fun fare, a longstanding partner docked in Manila. As the dragon was sashaying away, Uncle Sam came knocking at our doorsteps boosting tourism receipts. USS George Washington (GW) (CVN 73) and embarked Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 5, with a combined crew of more than 5,000 sailors, along with USS McCampbell (DDG 85) and USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) arrived in Manila on Sept. 4.

Very few saw the ironies of these two events but the US, knowing the value of perception management, immediately made a statement via George Washington's Commanding Officer Capt. David A. Lausman, "the United States and the Philippines enjoy a historic relationship, and we intend to build on this positive friendship.” He added, "GW's port visit represents an important opportunity to promote peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, demonstrates commitment to regional partners and fosters relationships.”

Yesterday, former President Fidel V. Ramos talked about the importance of the Philippines since it “stands astride the two great routes of international commerce and naval access—the China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.” Ramos added that being the northernmost among ASEAN members makes the Philippines part of the first island chain. “The Philippines provides the best staging areas for the extension of maritime capabilities by the major powers,” he reiterated. The second chain starts with Guam, along with the other small Pacific islands such as Fiji and Samoa.

Having said that, what are the flashpoints in the region? There are six major flashpoints, namely: Taiwan, Spratly Islands, North Korea, Kashmir, the China-India-Burma and the Arunachal Pradesh region in India.

Specifically, the Taiwan issue is connected with its relations with China. The relationship is said to be improving because of the assumption to power of the pro-China Nationalist Party (KMT) in 2008. However, the political winds may change since many Taiwanese still want complete independence from China. There are 1,500 missiles on China’s soil still pointing directly to Taiwan and they appear to have been increasing by number. This delicate balance between independence and increased in the number of missiles, when tilted could lead to a US counterattack.

The Spratly Islands is an area where six countries have expressed claims: Brunei, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, and China. China claims sovereignty over all islands in the South China Sea, including Spratly Islands. Reports have said that since 2008, China continues massive expansion in the area, increasing its budget by 18%. The increase is said to be part of a larger naval strategy –- to gain control over the entire Pacific and Indian Ocean Regions based on a “String of Pearls” initiative. The initiative put together a collection of ports that link China with the Mideast and Africa.

In 2009, North Korea launched a multi-stage satellite vehicle and detonated a second nuclear device. The “level of hatred between the North Koreans and the Japanese is enormous, the same tension as that between the North and South Korea.

Kashmir is another area of conflict between two nations: Pakistan and India. The area has been a continuing source of military intrusions since the two countries were formed in 1947 by Partition. Just like Kashmir, the China-India-Burma borders are part and parcel of the “String of Pearls” initiative of China. China’s increasing military and economic investments through Central Asia is a function of the said initiative. The countries in China's "String of Pearls" include Myanmar (Burma), Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Pakistan. ?Completion of this "String of Pearls" strategy will bring China into direct confrontation with both India and the US.

Lastly, the Arunachal Pradesh region in northeast India on the border with Tibet in China is another flashpoint in Asia. The Chinese claims that the region is historically part of China, and they even took military action in 1959 to reclaim it, though they retreated in 1961. Just as China plans, sooner or later, to forcibly make Taiwan part of China, it's quite likely that China has similar plans for Arunachal Pradesh, creating a new trigger point for war between China and India.

So where is the Philippines in all these? Our geography bestows on us our strategic advantage in terms of economics and military. The ASEAN integration as an economic and political bloc is an evolving development. The presence of Filipinos in the four corners of the world gives every political administration billions of dollars of remittance necessitating that our foreign relations should change along with the functions of our embassies and consulates on labor, foreign affairs, and trade.

Where is the slam-dunk in BSA3’s foreign policy doctrine and national security strategy in all these?

Well, a columnist stationed behind one’s computer nook ridiculed a couple of “political analysts,” both academically trained and professionally experienced as being detached from reality. Must be an attempt to prophesize?

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