BALAY v SAMAR in 2013

Friday, 14 January 2011 04:06

Written by Malou Tiquia

With the way the Balay and Samar factions are hitting each other on a daily basis, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear 2013 Senate tickets being explored and formed by both factions. The question that the Liberal Party will have to address is whether they will field a full 12 or a coalition of parties with LP getting 6 names and the remaining 6 coming from the present coalition. Unless the GMA-led

“opposition” can field a competitive slate, my sense is it will be a battle royal in 2013 among Balay-led and Samar-associated candidates. Look at the fight for the chair of COMELEC and you will understand what I am saying.

There are 6 termed out Senators. These are Angara, Arroyo, Lacson, Pangilinan, Honasan and Villar. The re-electionists are Escudero, Legarda, A. Cayetano, Trillanes and Zubiri. In 2013, the seat of Aquino will also have to be filled up, bringing to 13 seats up for grabs.

In studying the 2013 senatorial battlefield, it is critical to understand the dynamics of the 2007 senatorial and 2010 presidential elections respectively.

Recall the so-called United Opposition or UNO, which remains registered in COMELEC as a political party. UNO was created by then Makati City Mayor Jojo Binay on June 2005 to unite all politicians who wished to impeach PGMA. UNO started scouting candidates for the Senate as early as October 2006 to claim a large share of the Senate seats. On January 2007, UNO started short-listing its nominees after a large number of interested personalities wanted to join the opposition. The UNO changed its name on February 12, 2007 at the Club Filipino to "Grand and Broad Coalition" (GBC). On February 15, 2007 the group changed its named again to Genuine Opposition or GO after a meeting with then Senate President Manny Villar. GO became the opposition coalition with eight parties under its wing, including its predecessor, UNO. There was much wrangling between UNO and LP in 2007 due to the declaration of the COMELEC of LP as the predominant minority party, granting LP the right to secure the election returns for the opposition. Secondly, LP never supported the full GO ticket and concentrated on their LP bets instead. The reason why this was so was because of the differences with LP and the Villar-led Nacionalistas.

The senatorial candidates of the GO then who won were: Legarda, Escudero, Lacson Villar, Aquino, Cayetano and Trillanes. The two Independents were Pangilinan (LP) and Honasan. Angara, Arroyo and Zubiri won for Team Unity. No. 13 then was Koko Pimentel, who is now the president of the PDP-Laban and whose electoral protest is still pending with the SET.

Interestingly, the now Vice President Jojo Binay has been the moving force in UNO, GO, and PDP Laban. The Estrada-Binay ticket in 2010 was a PMP-PDP-Laban coalition. Instrumental in the Binay victory is the timely out-and-out endorsement by Escudero who has consistently defined himself as part of the opposition, just like Binay.

Readily, losing vice presidential candidate Mar Roxas will lead the Balay camp with initial names being bandied around: Risa Baraquel of Akbayan, Erin Tanada, Edwin Lacierda, Ricky Carandang and Leila de Lima. Roxas will have to win convincingly in order to be competitive for 2016.

The initial 6 of LP is a weak line up in my book. Baraquel, with Akbayan very connected with LP may be competitive this time around. There are also talks that an Akbayan old hand will soon be political affairs head of the Aquino administration. With Akbayan getting key positions, Baraquel may just make it. De Lima is at the top of the recent Pulse Asia poll and Roxas will have to redefine himself after the debacle and the way his campaign was ran.

Samar, having supported actively a NoyBi ticket will have the shades of the former opposition or those closely connected with Binay. Escudero, Trillanes will be staple in the Samar ticket. If the Nacionalistas will , this early, position for Binay for 2016, then A. Cayetano and Legarda will be in the slate. That’s 4 re-electionists plus Koko Pimentel and JV Ejercito, who will run now than wait in 2016 when another Estrada is said to be eyeing a national run.

Other names being mentioned from the House of Representatives are Jack Enrile, Mitos Magsaysay, an Arroyo (Dato or Gloria herself), Jun Abaya, Sonny Angara, Martin Romualdez, Boyie Remulla and Roilo Golez (although calls have been made for him to run for Paranaque mayor)

Former Senators said to be interested in making a comeback are: Gordon, Biazon and Madrigal. The youth arm of presidential candidate Gibo Teodoro is egging on Teodoro to consider a Senate run. While some Aquino cabinet men and women are also being floated and tested: Abad, Soliman and Purisima.

The long-delayed elections of LP will probably be pulled out by the 19th of this month. Names reportedly gunning for the prexy position of LP are Belmonte, Roxas and Pangilinan. Belmonte seems to have the votes considering political butterflies now pack LP. Roxas, on the other hand is being requested by the LP originals to again run and if he decides not to, Pangilinan may just throw his hat in the ring to protect the heart and soul of LP.

2013 indeed will be a prelude of the 2016 battle. A proxy war is in the making from defining the respective slates to testing their respective strengths. Binay’s consolidation work after the elections in 2010 seems to be doing a lot better than the other side. LP seems to be unable to be party in government. These are where key appointees will play instrumental roles in shoring up the competitive edge of Samar and Balay.

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