Game of Poaching: Easier to Get 8 than 16

Thursday, 31 March 2011 06:42

Written by Malou Tiquia

Tags: Zilch

I have been asked several times on how things stack up with Impeach Merci in the Senate and in all these I have limited my assessments on three scenarios with definite conclusions that can already be made: a) it is easier to get 8 votes than the “2/3 of all the Members of the Senate” as what Section 3 (6) of the Constitution stipulates;  (b) LP Senators will vote to impeach as publicly verbalized by its party chairman while Nacionalistas, following their voting behavior in the HOR, will vote not to impeach; c) non-lawyer members in the Senate will decide the outcome and (d) since Aquino administration wants to make the Ombudsman their corruption icon of what “daang matuwid” means as well as the reality of “kung walang korupt, walang mahirap,” I don’t see any abstention.  It’s just not what these Senators are made up of being known as independent republics.

As has often been stated, impeachment is a political solution and it passes to Congress where decisions are made on who has the numbers, numbers after all defines majority.  Hence the mathematics of impeachment tells us that 2/3 of 24 is 16.  For Merci to be impeached, prosecutors led by Congressman Niel Tupas, Jr. would need to secure 16 votes.  That by itself is a tall order.  Proving there was betrayal of public trust due to “inaction of the Ombudsman” is the hardest obstacle the prosecutors will be up against.

My 3 scenarios are simple and my best-case scenario is for the House prosecutors to give primacy on the fertilizer scam as the basis of betrayal of public trust because of inaction by Merci.  This strategy would result in the institution (SENATE) defending its output.  Just imagine a former senator like Jun Magsaysay testifying.  The medium is the message. 

This scenario will result in 7 votes for impeachment.  Those who signed the Committee Report  then and are still Senators today are: Honasan, Revilla, Angara, Lacson, Legarda, Lapid and Estrada.  It would be very hard for the 7 to all of a sudden change their minds because it wouldn’t look good in terms of public opinion. 

Add 7 LP Senators and allies: Drilon, Guingona, Pangilinan, Recto, Osmena, Trillanes and Escudero, that would total 14 votes, still lacking 2 votes.  In this scenario, it is easier to get 7 votes not to impeach which would be composed of Nacionalistas, formerly associated with the Arroyo camp and legal purists.

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[1]This means that those who signed the CR on the Fertilizer scam and are still Senators 
would want to get Merci on this, especially is former Sen. Jun Magsaysay testifies.  
Note that dissenting opinions on the Gordon report re conclusions were made by 
Sen. A. Cayetano and Arroyo.

Scenario Non-Lawyers looks into the motives and biases of the 13 non-lawyers on the Senate who will make their decisions not on technical or legal basis but on other things more crucial to them.  Of the 13, 2 are termed out (TO), 3 are up for re-election (R) and 8 are holdovers (H). 

Termed out will go for legacy; re-electionists will go with popular vote, and the holdovers will probably take the institutionalist view (OMB) , save for LP Senators.  If you add the legal purists (Santiago, Enrile, Arroyo) in this scenario, it is much harder to get the 16 votes needed to impeach.

The third scenario is by party lines.  Since LP was not able to get their candidate for the Senate President elected, the point persons of BSA3 in the Senate will have to work on coalition partners, most importantly Angara.

Of the 23 Senators, there are only 5 LPs: Pangilinan, Drilon, Osmena, Recto and Guingona.  Other allies are Escudero and Trillanes so that makes for 7 votes only.

The Nacionalistas are 6: Villar, Santiago, Marcos and the 2 Cayetanos.  Arroyo would most likely vote with this block so that’s 6 votes against impeachment of Merci.  Lakas has 2 votes: Revilla and Lapid while the Angara group accounts for Legarda, Sotto, Zubiri, Honasan or 5 votes.Enrile and Estrada belong to PMP-PDP Laban or 2 votes.

Hence, the swing votes will clearly be the Angara bloc; still it is easier to get 8 votes not to impeach than 16 votes to impeach.  If Angara bloc joins LP, they are still short of 2 votes.

As the prosecution panel of the House, who this early, critics are saying they lack experience in litigation, is making preparations, Congress will end its first regular session on June 9.  That means the impeachment calendar will only get to trial by the latter part of May or worst, when Congress convenes for its second regular session in July 2011.  In a very adversarial climate and losing material ground in terms of his satisfaction rating, BSA3 will have to assess his cabinet and tap to a deeper bench, with the election ban lifted by May.

And when he stands again before the joint houses of Congress to deliver his second State of the Nation Address, BSA3 will have to temper the winds of partisanship that would glimmer like a hot summer’s day in the impeachment court.  He will have to stand up high and fight the fight that needs fighting and not to fight the fights he can win.

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[2]Impeachment case is weak because of systemic problems of the institution of the OMB

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